Anticipating FP10: Navigating tech sovereignty and civilian-military duality 

In recent years, Europe and the world have seen tectonic shifts on both economic and defence fronts. While its implementation is still three years away, many European Union (EU) member countries and stakeholders are bracing themselves for the next (10th) Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (FP10) which comes into effect in 2028. The programme, which is set to replace Horizon Europe, may be open to dual civilian and military use funding.  

While Ireland’s research community has historically performed well in Horizon Europe, Ireland is at risk of being left behind when FP10 comes into effect. Ireland’s readiness to participate was the topic of discussion at Anticipating FP10: Navigating Tech Sovereignty & Civ-Mil Duality at the Horizon Europe Impact Conference on Thursday, December 5, 2024. 

Navigating the duality of FP10 

On January 24, 2024, the European Commission (EC) issued the white paper On options for enhancing support for research and development involving technologies with dual-use potential. The paper launched a public consultation on EU-level research and development support involving technologies with dual-use potential. This included an exploration into existing EU funding programmes. It assessed whether current programmes are still adequate and strategic in the face of “existing and emerging geopolitical challenges outlined in the European Economic Security Strategy.”  

While Horizon Europe, the current funding framework, is exclusively open to civilian applications, the EC white paper strongly suggests that FP10 will be open to applications with dual civilian and military uses. If this is the case, Ireland is poorly prepared to engage with the growing defence agenda. Ireland's historical lack of emphasis on defence research and the nation’s limited defence infrastructure, such as security clearances to participate, are not yet in place. This puts Ireland at a distinct disadvantage in the potentially more defence-oriented FP10.  

Irish universities could face challenges if they are unable or unwilling to work on dual-use topics. SMEs could be hindered from being outside defence networks. This could lead to a decline in Ireland's overall performance compared to Horizon Europe. 

Released on October 30, 2024, a report by former Finnish president Sauli Niinistö, in his capacity as Special Adviser to the President of the European Commission, further supported the potential of dual-use funding. Strengthening Europe’s Civilian and Military Preparedness and Readiness advised scaling up Europe’s defence efforts and unlocking its dual-use potential. This included recommendations to:   

●     Review the EU’s dual-use potential 

●     Analyse existing definitions, policies and regulations around dual-use 

●     Strengthen dual-use research and defence innovation in the EU framework  

●     Embed defence and dual-use-related considerations in the EU’s work on critical (foundational) technologies 

●     Develop a structured programme for developing civilian security capability, supported by EU funding schemes. 

Many existing technologies like cybersecurity and AI are inherently dual-use. This could make it more difficult for organisations with restrictions on defence work to participate when there’s an emphasis on dual-use research.  

It’s important to begin planning how you can adapt to this potential change. This means considering the implications of potential changes required to participate, for example policies and ethics guidelines around defence-related work.  

Shifts in EU defence spending  

The EU's priorities, whether economic, agricultural, environmental or defence-related, often inform focus areas in research and innovation. In recent years, there has been a steep rise in defence spending among EU member states with total expenditure set to hit €326bn by the end of 2024. This has been spurred on by several key geo-political events including:  

●     2011: US President Obama’s "pivot to Asia" strategy  

●     2014: Russia’s annexing of Crimea and support of separatists in Eastern Ukraine  

●     2016: President Donald Trump’s declarations that its North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) burden is unfair on the USA and the organisation may be obsolete 

●     2022: Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine 

●     2024: President Trump’s re-election.   

When examining the current spending on EU defence initiatives within the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), this creates a total spend of approximately €29bn, broken down as follows:  

●     €7.9bn European Defence Fund (EDF) 

●     €1.74bn Military Mobility fund (MM) 

●     €0.5bn Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) 

●     €0.3bn European Defence Industry Reinforcement through common Procurement Act (EDIRPA) 

●     €1.5bn European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) 

●     €17.1bn European Peace Facility (EPF) 

Ireland's unreadiness to engage in European defence programmes stems from multiple factors including lack of expertise, infrastructure or regulatory framework. Ireland also lacks many necessary financial and accreditation mechanisms that enable full participation in EU defence initiatives. This has a knock-on effect to the Irish research in this area, and by extension Ireland’s potential performance at FP10.  

Without expertise or infrastructure, Ireland may fall short on financial and security requirements to participate in EU defence initiatives. This could limit the country’s ability to benefit from EU defence funding and to contribute to European defence capabilities. 

The rise in EU defence spending and the increased emphasis on dual-use research leading up to FP10 spells opportunities and challenges for Irish researchers. Ireland needs to up its game to avoid falling behind. Otherwise, Ireland will continue to contribute to EU defence industry initiatives – including dual civilian-military use initiatives in FP10 without reaping the rewards.