Anticipating FP10: Risks for Ireland in the context of EU Defence Initiatives  

For details on economic competitiveness, consult the April 2024 Letta “Much more than a market” and September 2024 Draghi “The future of European Competitiveness” reports. Here the focus is on EU developments in defence, how defence will shape FP10 and the top-level implications for Ireland.

2. Ongoing EU Defence Initiatives

Within the current seven-year funding cycle the EC funds the following defence related activities:

1.      The 7.9b€ European Defence Fund (EDF)

2.      The 1.74b€ Military Mobility fund (MM) 

3.      The 0.5b€ Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP)

4.      The 0.3b€ European Defence Industry Reinforcement through common Procurement Act (EDIRPA)

5.      The 1.5b€ European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP)

6.      The off-balance sheet 17.1b€ European Peace Facility (EPF)

The expenditure will total ~29b€, almost one third the size of the entire Horizon Europe budget. It’s noted that not all EPF expenditure is on defence. Apart from a modest return in EDF, Irish entities may struggle to access any of this funding. 

3. Outcomes for Ireland in EDF 2021-2022  

PERFORMANCE BY COUNTRY IN THE EUROPEAN DEFENCE FUND (EDF) 2021-2022  

Note that details on the destination of ~15% of EDF 2022 are unavailable. Norway is an Associated Country.

In 2021, Irish entities were successful in 3 EDF projects winning 5.38m€ in total.

1.      NUIM ACTING (Cyber Security) 0.44M€

2.      Applied Intelligence Analytics KOIOS (Artificial Intelligence) 0.58m€

3.      NUIG COUNTERACT (Medical Countermeasures against CBRN threats) 4.37m€

In 2022, Irish entities were successful in 6 EDF projects winning 2.62m€ in total.

1.      Applied Intelligence Analytics CONVOY  (Cloud intelligent explosive detection system) 0.25m€

2.      Applied Intelligence Analytics E-NACSOS  (EU Naval Collaborative Surveillance Operational Standard).             ~0.5m€ 

3.      Mbryonics SPIDER (Space based Persistent ISR for Defence and Europe Reinforcement) 0.67m€

4.      NUIG RESILIENCE (Medical countermeasures against CBRN threats) 0m€ to date.

5.      Research Driven Solutions UTILE (Circularity of Soldier Personal Protection Equipment) 0.55m€

6.      True Communication Technologies Limited (VRAI) FEDERATES (Simulation for Training and decision                 Support) 0.65m€

Overall, Ireland’s performance in EDF is challenged by two top-level issues: (a) As a country it has been averse to engaging with defence so that many elements vital to successful participation, such as properly constituted security clearance procedures, are not in place. (b) To a significant extent, EU defence programmes have limited opportunity for competition. For example, in the European Defence Industrial Development Programme (EDIDP) 2019-2020, the 0.5b€ predecessor to EDF, 73% of the funding went to topics that received 1 proposal. 

4. Future EU Defence Initiatives

- Ursula von der Leyen has proposed 500b€ to fund one or more European Defence Projects of Common      Interest (EDPCIs) via the issuing of defence bonds. According to an FT report, Ireland and other neutrals    can opt-out. 

- European Investment Bank President Nadia Calviño said she expects to officially announce a €1 billion        program to support SMEs operating in security and defence.

- In the 2028-2034 funding cycle, it seems likely that the successor programmes to EDIP and EDF will receive   substantially increased funding.

It remains to be seen how future EU defence initiatives evolve but based on its performance to date, Ireland is poorly positioned to benefit from a potentially dramatic increase in EU defence funding.

5. How defence influences current EU programmes

The defence agenda is already influencing current non-defence programmes. Here are some examples:

- The European Defence Agency established the identifunding website. It directs defence actors to EU funding opportunities. This brings forth a broader theme which is that the defence lobby is seeking to shape all relevant programming so that it can take advantage. Ultimately, the aim is industrial consolidation and domination of the EU marketplace across various defence and civ\mil domains. Ironically, there is no European single market in security or defence.

-  The Military Mobility initiative is funded from the Connecting Europe Facility.

-  The Digital Europe Programme (DEP) has had a topic Coordination between the cybersecurity civilian and defence spheres with 2 projects funded, ECYBRIDGE and COCyber. More dual-use topics are on the way. Areas funded in DEP such as Artificial Intelligence, High Performance Computing, Cybersecurity and Advanced Digital Skills have relevance to the defence sector. 

-  Within Horizon Europe, Article 22.5 of the Horizon Europe regulation is being invoked where it was not before. For example, in the draft 2025 Cluster 3, Civil Security for Society Work Programme, in cybersecurity, five of six topics offer no possibility of participation by non-Associated OECD country headquartered entities, even though they may employ thousands of EU citizens. 

-  There can be an interplay between defence and civil topics. The EDIDP\EDF funded Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) medical countermeasures to almost 150m€ without competition. CBRN medical countermeasures are referenced multiple times in the draft civil security programme. The EC has not explained the distinction between CBRN medical countermeasures in a defence versus an exclusively civil context. 

6. How defence will influence and interplay with FP10

The EC is emphasising economic security: addressing the resilience of supply chains, security of critical infrastructure, technology security and leakage, and weaponisation of economic dependencies or economic coercion. 

Included in measures to address these issues was an EC White Paper on enhancing support for research and development involving technologies with dual-use potential. Since then several reports have highlighted dual-use including in June 2024, Science, research and innovation performance of the EU – A competitive Europe for a sustainable future 

A quote is “Fostering the synergies between EU defence and civilian R&D programmes can support the development and uptake of dual-use technologies within the EU. These technologies, serving both civilian and military purposes, could contribute to shaping the future landscape of innovation and the EU’s and Member States’ security.” 

Then there is the Heitor report of September 2024, Act, Align, Accelerate: Research Technology and Innovation to boost European Competitiveness,” which argues that almost all new technologies could be considered dual use. “Instead of trying to identify and classify ‘dual use’, we advocate embracing that it is ubiquitous and inevitable.” & “The European Commission should administer programmes as “military RD&I” and “everything else” (i.e., civilian, dual use) and optimise the innovation dividend arising from the need for increased national security and defence expenditure by exploiting dual use both ways.” 

Then in October 2024 there was the Niinistö report, “Safer Together: Strengthening Europe’s Civilian and Military Preparedness and Readiness” which contains “Chapter 7: Scaling up Europe’s defence efforts and unlocking its dual-use potential”.

6. Conclusion

There are seismic shifts in Europe and globally on both economic and defence fronts. It’s likely that defence and dual-use activities will be to the fore in the next EU funding cycle. The risk for Ireland is that it will be uncompetitive, contributing substantially to other developed countries’ high-tech industries across future European programmes including FP10.